I can definitively say that 8 weeks on the yeast cake resulted in autolysis in my lager.
And it’s gross. Toss in what I’m calling astringency (weird back of the mouth drying/bitter grossness) from too much hop matter making it into the fermentor, and this beer is just plain bad…
I hear you… It’s happened to me enough times as well to know that autolysis is real. I can’t remember now if I set my rule of thumb to 6 weeks or to 8 weeks but it’s in that ballpark to where if you’re planning on going any longer than about 6 weeks, start to be concerned that it could go bad. These days I try to get my beer into bottles or secondary if necessary within 4-6 weeks max so I haven’t had this problem for many years now.
I’ve had beers hit 6 weeks before, and till now never noticed any issues. This was a pale lager though, so that could be a factor.
Could be yeast dependent as well. This was a WLP835/WYE-2001 split batch. I couldn’t detect any autolysis flavors in the 2001, but that was the most astringent. (still brown hop gunk floating on the beer.)