Mitch Steele’s takes are always interesting (and legit IMO).
http://hoptripper.com/craft-beer-sales-are-at-an-all-time-high-and-why-this-could-be-scary/
He makes some good points, but I’ve seen numbers that indicate the entire market, craft and macro, is declining.
Did I read right that this was written in September of 2015? I agree with a lot of the points, but I think it will take more time for a bubble to burst and maybe it’s not like a tech bubble with a large burst. I think this big issue is to separate those whose model is the tap room model vs distribution. I think there are way too many trying to distribute today and it’s beginning to look more and more like wine where you don’t have as much individual brand recognition. The tap rooms are essentially bars who make their own product, right (with a pretty large overhead)?
Yeah, strange. It was posted on Stan H’s recent blog postings. Interesting article anyway.
I think another factor that wasn’t mentioned applies here - namely the ABV of the craft beers has increased (ABV creep). When I visited a local brewery’s tap room recently for a club social event, the small brewery sold more small pours, along with fewer pint beers consumed by each attendee. You simply can’t drink as many of the larger ABV offerings in a setting, so you either order taster samples or fewer pint beers (along with many water glasses in between beers). That illustrates a shift in beer consumption among all demographics - especially among those who are driving vehicles to the event, which is a good thing.
Oddly, the brewery that hosted the event was originally established as a “session beer brewery”…sadly, only one offering on the menu of 10+ beers was a 4% range ABV beer; all others were 6-7% ABV.