I spent an afternoon crunching the numbers, and it became apparent that anything under 3bbl would most likely end up being a money pit, even with optimistic estimates.
Brewing is an industry. Economies of scale make a big difference very quickly.
The guy who posted that does mention that it can be useful as a “proof of concept” thing to get the brewery up and running, but any business plan involving nanobrewing should either have outside capital planned into it, or not plan on being able to pay yourself for you time.
Man, that guy hit the nail on the head. I could have wrote that. FTR I have been suggesting teh “proof of concept” thing on small systems from the beginning. On anything smaller than a 7-10 bbl system that is all you will be doing. If that is what a brewer is trying to do I say go for it. But just understand the amount of free labor it takes to float such an endeavor.
I’m actually considering setting up a .5-1.5 bbl pilot system. Economically, I can’t justify doing that instead of just putting the money into the full-size system, but it would be fun to have around for pilot batches and one-off beers down the road.
Realistically, I think my 10 gal home system will be our “pilot system”.
I know it’s apples-to-oranges, but I asked about production volume over on winepress.us (a site for amateur and small wineries), and I thought the response was interesting:
"My advice is to start small and let sales drive your future volume increases. Running out of wine and putting up a sign that says sold out is far better that putting up a sign that says “selling our wine cheap because it’s not very good and we overproduced and can’t sell it”. Of course you’re sign won’t say that but this is modern America and customers are very perceptive. When a winery is constantly running promotions and sales there is a subtle message of desperation sent that devalues the brand. When you put up the sign that says sold out the underlying message is “this stuff is damn good and you should have gotten off your butt and bought some when it was available and next time you see it available you’d better buy a case before it’s sold out again.”
Who knows? Maybe if you’re really marketing saavy you can turn ultra-low production into a selling point, and command a high price for you beer.
I was just being a smart aleck (drinking all day brings that out in me) - I agree with you 100% and that is the model we follow. In some restaurants we have the most expensive beer on tap. There is a feeling of prestige that goes along with paying a little more. Of course, you also have to have quality to back it up.
I think that is easier for a winery which has a seasonal/annual product. Customers know that you can’t just ‘buy more grain’ and the culture is more geared towards customers buying for storage (even if it is just short term).
This is where that all important ‘Estate’ label would come into the equation. If you are growing your own grain and hops it becomes a seasonal product as once your crop is gone it’s gone.
He’s started since I moved from Denver. If I were still there, I’d probably get a Reserve membership. I’m heading out in May for a friend’s wedding, so I’ll pick up some of his bottles.
They’re doing some pretty interesting things with saisons and funky beers. I believe he’s an alt prop with Funkwerks – not certain, but I believe he has his own foudres and is working at opening his own place. One more option/route that isn’t “Nano”…
As an aside, Funkwerks made the most disappointing beer I’ve ever tried. It was ok, but uninspired. A pretty run-of-the-mill Saison. I tried their New Zealand-hopped version too, which was better, but also unremarkable. I expected so much more from a brewery called “Funkwerks.”
Sadly I think this is the trend with most brewers nowadays. Too many wine people came into the industry and saw how that worked with wine, now they are doing it with beer. Darklord anyone? Kate the Great? Reserve Societies? The ‘exclusivity’ or the ‘I-got-it-and-you-didn’t’ crowd is becoming larger each year.
Now there are some good beers that are sold out because they are good. And they seem to try to make more each year. Demand for those have grown semi-organically because the beers are really good. But the ‘special release’ mentality is going to end up hurting more than it helps.