yep it can. but calibration should always be done in distilled. not all tap water will give 1.000 reading…mine does not.
There are too many variables involved to predict a FG unless you have repeatedly brewed the same recipe over and over at home and know the range you will get. As stated above, things like mash temp accuracy, grain to water volume, malt used, conversion efficiency, wort aeration levels, yeast vitality/pitch rate/health, post boil volume accuracy, and fermentation profile are just a few that come to mind.
As Denny said, don’t take too much heed in hitting an exact FG. In a perfect world we would hit it every time but Lord knows that doesn’t always happen. I consider my brew days a complete success if I am within 2 points + or - of my OG and FG expected.
After all we are just homebrewers…
To Denny’s point, I rarely hit beersmith’s predicted final gravity, unless I manually edit the ingredients (yeast attenuation range, for example) for a recipe or process I’m very familiar with.
Many things can influence how a beer is perceived, regardless of where the numbers end up. What’s important is that it tastes good!
Edit: D’oh! brewinhard beat me to it.
Sorry Bud… 
+2. Remember we drink beer, not numbers. Taste the final product and decide how you feel about it. I like well attenuated beer and I’ve had beers come in at 1.009-1.008 FG that, while a little lower than targeted, were damn good beers.
I wish some of my beers finished at 1.008.
+3 i like many beers very dry…some struggle to get there.
I look forward to the batch that finishes lower than it is “supposed” to.
My beers almost never finish below 1.010 and the only ones that finish that low are lagers. I had a pale ale finish at 1.009 last year, which surprised me. Most of my ales finish in the 1.011-1.016 range, with a few here and there that finish high (which pisses me off). I have a porter on tap now that finished at 1.021, while it’s good, it would be SO much better if it had finished at 1.015 or around there.
Perhaps it’s because I’m fermenting in kegs, but I’m still not convinced that fermenter geometry has that effect on the yeast.
Does a low FG always equate to a dry beer regardless of what the OG was?
This!
Usually
Ok, I’ll stop wondering now and enjoy my awesome dry pale ale!
+1
It may not be dry per se, but just a little thinner in body. I bet it’s good.
No worries man. I brewed two APAs that both finished below my expected FG. 84 and 85% attenuation. Both delicious.
I’m thinking this occurred because:
- the gallon or so I added at end of mash before lautering was only 175 degrees. This hardly moved my mash temp, but during lautering it cooled quite a bit (147 or so) and it took longer than anticipated. I’m guessing I had a fairly fermentable wort. I could have used boiling water here to keep my temp up.
- my batch sparge water was only 170 degrees, so the same thing occurred there, the 170 degree water didn’t boost the grist temp up all that much.
Those are really the only two things that stood out to me. In short, a mash out or near mash out may have prevented this… or maybe it wouldn’t have. The beer is still good!
The AA for your recipe is 75%, which is low. WLP001 is BRY 96. BRY 96 is one of the highest attenuating normal ale strains. Attenuation rates in the eighties are not uncommon with BRY 96.
As I have mentioned many times, a high krausen pitch will always outperform a “fermented out” pitch because the cells are in peak health and do not have to undo the morphological changes that occur at the end of fermentation. Add in sufficient aeration and a strain with a high attenuation rate, and an AA of 85% is not out of the question.
Are you certain that your mash was not stratified (i.e., hot on the top and colder on the bottom or in the middle)? A minute of stirring is often not enough to achieve an even temperature throughout the mash, especially if you had small dough balls.
Finally, as others have mentioned, one drinks beer, not numbers. In time, you will know what to expect AA-wise from a yeast strain in your brew house using your water supply. That knowledge will allow you to adjust your grist and mash profile to push AA in either direction.
+1. 75% for Chico is low. I stir the mash for close to 5 minutes, or as long as it takes to : 1/ ensure no doughballs, and 2/ get a steady temp end to end of the cooler, deep and shallow. That’s the great thing about a trial run on a beer you plan to brew again - more chances to fine tune it.
flbrewer - be extra careful to get a steady mash temp. Assuming you did that, you could always mash a few degrees warmer and maybe increase malts like crystal/caramel or carapils next time to get a higher FG, if you think it needs it. I still say it’ll be good.
I definitely didn’t stir for more than a minute for fear that my temp would be too low. Considering my temp was spot on with a brief stir I’ll need a higher strike temp. next time.
Can you elaborate on this? Are you saying that a higher sparge temp would have extracted more sugars and led to a higher OG?