Hop-Fu OG/ABV Issues

I’d like to give this beer a try soon and I’m having trouble replicating the same OG and ABV for a 5 gallon batch in BeerSmith. Any ideas? Why would I have a higher OG and a lower ABV?

Batch size: 14 Gallons
Boil Time: 90 Minutes Efficiency: 78%
OG: 1.067 - FG: 1.010 / 7.5% ABV
Grain:
94.5% Great Western 2-Row Pale Malt - 31.5 lbs
4% Briess Cara-Pils Dextrine Malt - 1.31 lbs
1.5% Crisp Crystal Malt 45L - .53 lbs

I get an OG: 1.069 (which is fine) but the ABV is 7%.
Grain:
94.5% Great Western 2-Row Pale Malt - 13.75 lbs
4% Briess Cara-Pils Dextrine Malt - .58 lbs
1.5% Crisp Crystal Malt 45L - .22 lbs

Is Beersmith set for your efficiency and not his? Also you have to realize that the abv relies on the degree of attenuation you get, regardless of what he got. That’s why FG estimates (and therefore abv estimates) are just that - ROUGH estimates.

+1

Maybe mash temp?

Edit:  To Jon’s point, looks like attenuation.  Beersmith’s default for 1056 is 73-77% I think, but you’re targeting this beer to finish around 1.010, right?

Don’t ever focus primarily on the FG as an accurate predictor on ANY brewing software.  There are just too many variables going into it to accurately determine it without having brewed the recipe before.  Wort aeration levels, calibrated mash temperatures, fermentation temps, yeast type and preparation, are just a few things that can determine a beers actual FG. All of which will be different from brewer to brewer and even from brew day to brew day.

Just be sure to nail the OG (as close as possible), mash temp, IBU levels, and fermentation temps and let the rest figure itself out (i.e. FG).  Once you brew that recipe you will have a better read on where to dial in your “controls” to nail the actual HOP FU recipe that won all those medals. Take good notes while you brew!

OK, I’ll focus on hitting the OG first and go from there. Thanks.

From what I can tell, beersmith uses the normal attenuation range with the mash temp to predict the fg. Sometimes I need to tweak the range to get the ABV I know I can get with a given recipe. This is the case specifically with a saison recipe I brew a couple times of year. I know I can get down to 1.003 with 3711, but beersmith gives me 1.006 without adjusting the yeast in the recipe.