Even if the data for the article is questionable, the AHA collects a lot of data both from stores and homebrewers. Those data confirm what the article says.
Those of us who lived through the 90s boom and the brew-on-premises places have seen these cycles before. I haven’t seen the data, but I doubt it’s any reason to fret.
Even if there’s a contraction in brick and mortar stores, the on-line shops will remain (I think my original order from William’s was placed using a catalogue). The quality and availability of ingredients will not likely be impeded and is far better than it has ever been.
I brew less often than I used to, but life gets in the way. That doesn’t mean I’m quitting.
That shop is likely a good example of a bad shop. I’ve seen many shops pop up in the last few years as side businesses in existing retail locations. All they do is stock a bunch of LD Carlson or Brewcraft prepacked goods. Knowledge and service are doubly as important to good stock.
I once saw a shop in a neighborhood with crap parking that lasted less than a year. People don’t want to carry all arms full of heavy stuff blocks down the road.
I’m sure many will close due to a correction, but many are also closing because of bad choices and lack of ability.
The article has input from Gary Glass, so they did some research. As Denny said, this has been a topic, covered at length in the GC meeting.
The AHA growth has slowed, but was still slightly positive or flat last I heard.
The revenue at retailers is down. Less high margin extracts are sold as BIAB becomes more popular. Less fancy equipment sold for the same reason. Less beer is brewed due to demands on time (work, family, and so on). Every town having a brewery (it seems that way) cuts into the need to brew fresh beer.
There are many new devices coming out, the pico brew and grain father systems, that automate brewing. Those may bring more people into the hobby, as the automation has an allure for some.
Things change. Double digit growth doen’t last forever. I think the hobby will be fine in the long run.
For me, I brew because I like beer and I like the process. Here in the greater Cincinnati tri-state area, I have access to dozens of good to great local breweries, yet I still brew my own. I don’t plan on stopping unless we actually move into a tiny house (she really wants to). Brewing is my time and I can only hope that great LHBS’ s continue to help fuel my only real hobby and only me time I have
Wait a few years. I’m part of that tail end of baby-boomers, born in 1958-1960. When I retire in a few more years, I’ll have a lot more time for brewing and, if I’m lucky, still have a enough years and money to do it. I know I can’t be the only one. As an anecdotal side note, our club has seen a real uptick in the number of younger (under 35) members just this year. Less grey hair at meetings than there used to be, which we like!
The first part describes me, but as to the second part the same demands on my time keep me home and not going out to the breweries, tap rooms, and awesome beer pubs in Chicago. Brewing is something I can do at home. The kids can help out (they don’t much any more). We share the beer with friends when we are entertaining.
If I was younger, and unattached, the lure of going out might impinge on my brewing.
I agree that the hobby will be fine in the long run.
That happened to bowling back in the 70s. There was a 252 lane bowling center in Japan which shut down not too many years later.
You are just becoming a “casual homebrewer” according to the article, so you fit right in with the younger generation, Joe!
Also, we need to consider the number of guys who have gone to smaller batches so they can brew more varieties without stockpiling such large volumes of beer. I’m not sure how that would be reflected in the data, but perhaps the overall ingredients likely fall as a result? The point is the amount of spending on the hobby can change without the passion for homebrewing waning among those who are doing it.
Excellent point. I don’t wanna make 5 gallons anymore. I like my 1.7 gallons just fine. Or okay, maybe 2 gallons sometimes. 
Part of this is due to me wanting more variety in my cellar. The other part of it is I don’t have as many friends anymore. :'( But that should actually change again later in life once we get the kids out of the house, retirement, etc. 
I will home brew until they pry the mash paddle from my cold dead hands…
Joe Sr. You are like the Omega Man to me…Always right and a light in the darkness…
I just hope enough people quit homebrewing for me to pick up a lightly used zymatic for $500.
I can brew as much as I like, I have the time, money is not a problem. We do seem to be more socially active, so more nights out of the house. Lots of travel keeps me away from the taps of Homebrew. Factor in a little less drinking capacity as I age… you get the picture.
Still like to have beers for competitions.
Me, too!
^^^ I think that’s my new mantra. AHA oughta sell t-shirts and bumper stickers.
Well said Jeff, very well said (the whole thing)!
My old forum handle back in the day when the B3 forum was cool.
This pic is immediately what I thought of after the “cold dead hands” comment!
I think about how many times over the years I’ve complained or heard someone else complain about high prices, old ingredients, lack of service, lack of selection, dirty stores, terrible advice. And from the same stores for years. In what other business would running such a terrible business be sustainable?!
…if less stores means better stores, bring on the correction.