If you publicize high hop prices, they will come. 
So look for all-Crystal/Willamette IPAs as a trend this fall?
Mmmmmmm… :-\
No, crystal is one of the hard ones to come by. Another one I was lucky to get contract for.
Might be a good idea for pro brewers to “invest” in a small co-op or acreage that grows hops in an ideal location (for those non-proprietary varieties)–it may take a few years to reach maturity, but it would provide insurance against hop shortages. Perhaps having a friend with an acreage agree to having you pay for planting your rhizomes there…
I forget just how many acres and varieties of hops Rogue is growing now, but it’s a lot. They grow a lot of their own barley, too. They started several years back as a hedge against short supply and high price.
You may have your cause and effect reversed.
Maybe, but from what I’ve seen with other commodities, I don’t think so. How many times have you heard the media report that gas prices will slowly climb over the next few months, only to have them jump significantly the next day?
Some varieties are in short supply, but that will be corrected and in a few years they’ll be the cheap ones. Economics 101, supply and demand.
I still think you have reversed cause and effect, but like you say, we’ll see.
There’s a relatively small number of hop growers and they’re clustered in certain prime growing areas. They tend to have co-ops or unions (hmm… price control, possibly) catering to the craft brewing market and homebrewers.
Hops can spontaneously combust, viz. S.S. Steiner 40,000 sf warehouse fire in 2009.
http://www.cbsnews.com/2100-500395_162-2060017.html
It isn’t just simple supply/demand. Relatively speaking, the number of hop growers and retailers are small relative to the number of craft brewers and home brewers. It is hard to say what effect that will have on prices. Any decrease in sales right after harvest (due to excessively high prices) would be exacerbated by cost of storage and reduced prices later in the year (to try and move the product out of storage and free up warehouse space for next year’s crop).
Based on what I’m hearing, there may not be much to store! Many varieties have been contracted out so there’s no availability for them at all. And short supplies of many other varieties will drive prices up.
That makes sense, too. If all of the potential yield is already contracted out, then the only way to get some is to pay more for it from someone who’s looking to make a buck. Just as well, I’d love it if someone gave away a 7 bbl system to me for free in a few years. (Thread is now back on track).
It never hurts to do your home work, you doing a brewery this year you are 2 years late to find your hops and to contract them, ask me how I know. The farther you can think a head, will serve you at the end.