I spoke with a rep from Hop Union last week. Breweries are contracting hops thru 2020. The popular IPA hops like Citra, Mosaic, Nelson Sauvin, Amarillo, and Simcoe are mostly contracted thru 2016. How will startup breweries be able to obtain these popular varieties?
Either they won’t or through a secondary market, paying more.
One of the best takes on the rapid rise of new breweries opening was something like this.
“There are hundreds of new breweries opening or in planning with recipes designed around hops they will not be able to get.”
One of the realities of the supply chain of hops.
And hop supply is not static. More contracts equals more acreage. Obviously not in an immediate sense, but where there is money to be earned…
Sounds to me like poor Business research and planning!
Also, never hurts to experiment with hops, to find out what ones not named Citra, Amarillo or Simcoe can be used to make good beer, just in case you can’t get those. 
We got really lucky. We ended up walking into a hop contract with Hop Union through a brewery we contract brewed for who got a contract they couldn’t support. Breweries coming on the scene now will have a challenging time finding some hops at reasonable prices.
A good reason for a homebrewer with professional aspirations to play with all the hops not just the popular ones. You have to be creative to find hops without a contract.
Agree.
Make beer with available hops.
Do not fallow “me too” approach.
Yep. A brewery I’m designing recipes for grows their own hops…but only 3 varieties! I’ve got to design recipes to their specs of styles using Chinook, Magnum, and Fuggles! Talk about a challenge!
Magnum for bittering. Chinook for American beers, fuggles for British beers.
You’d think so, but all they want to make is an Oatmeal Brown ale, an AIPA and a IIPA. I am not part of the business plan, only a hired gun.
I would do oatmeal brown ale more British so use Fuggles. Other two beers would fall for chinook. Do not use Magnum as finishing hops.
But Denny, you hate fuggles!
There are beers we won’t be able to make due to lack of hops. I’m not too stressed about it, we will just make other beers.
Supply is going to be tight on those varieties for the foreseeable future. One of the first things I did when I decided to open a brewery was sign a hop contract for all the varieties I knew I wanted. We are about to open our doors next month (knock on wood), but I contracted for hops with two brokers in December of 2012. Still, I wasn’t able to get everything I wanted. I ended up buying some hard-to-find varieties on the secondary market. Yes, I paid a bit of a premium for these hops, but it depends on how important a particular variety is to your beer. For me, I had a very specific idea of what hops I wanted to use. Hopefully, it will be worth it!
The hop market is really tight for certain varieties, even cascade can be tough to find on the spot market. On the other hand, there are also lots of breweries always trying to unload excess hops off their contracts. So although the fields might be contracted out that doesn’t mean some of the crop won’t make its way into a secondary market.
That’s kinda my basic plan. No British yeasts, though, only 1056.
Yes…yes, I do…
Good luck.
Thanks, man. It’s a challenge. At this point the oatmeal brown is tasting pretty good, despite the Fuggles!