With the passing of each craft brewery that supplied a range of interesting and diverse beer, I recognize that we’re getting closer to the conditions that spawned my original quest to homebrew: having beer styles that I couldn’t readily obtain 3 decades ago.
While I understand that homebrewing isn’t as popular as it was a decade ago, I believe that the contraction of craft brewing will eventually bring people wanting new and interesting beer back into the hobby.
Thoughts?
In a normal world, I think you’d be right. But we also no longer live in a normal world… kids NOT wanting to drink and get into trouble, not wanting to socialize, stuck behind their screens all day every day, teaching AI to hack into stuff for fun, dogs and cats living together… mass hysteria. For the most part, I am not kidding. It’s a very different world than it’s ever been before. So… interest coming back to the hobby? Yeah, maybe in 50-100 years if this wackiness ever blows over. But I wouldn’t hold my breath.
I don’t consider myself a pessimist, but a realist.
I’m afraid I feel like that’s an unrealistic, rose colored glasses viewpoint. It ignores the elephant in the room, which is a decline in alcohol consumption in general. Homebrewing may grow among those who drink, but that’s a diminishing group.
As Dave mentioned, I’m not gloom and doom. I’m being a pragmatic realist.
I’ve seen a slight up tick people interested in homebrewing, but I don’t know if it’s just a temporary bump or a real trend. I doubt it will ever go away because making something at home, whether it’s cooking or fermenting, has an appeal to the human spirit. I’m hopeful.
Will Gen Alpha get into drinking or stick with Adderall+Lexapro and cannabis gummies like Gen Z? Is drinking going the way of smoking? Is socializing in person and dating and hooking up going to die forever or is this just a blip due to the unanticipated effects of social media and smartphone apps in the early 21st century going unchecked? These are the real questions and I don’t have answers to them.
However, I do think that, as millennials like myself age out of parenting children in the next 10-20 years, this hobby will bounce back a little bit. I brewed a ton in my 20s when this hobby was at its peak (roughly 2008-2013). And I knew a ton of people my age who were at least a little into homebrewing (and way more who were into craft beer). Then everyone had kids and brewed less or quit the hobby. We also go out less and drink less beer than we did in our youth. I remember back in 2011 thinking that it was weird how everyone involved in my multiple brew clubs were either under 30 or over 50. Now I get it: raising kids makes this hobby tough.
I believe that a lot of people of my general age cohort who brewed, or were just really enthusiastic about craft beer in their 20s, will dip their toe into this hobby when their nests are emptier (or maybe when the kids can drive themselves). Millennials who used to wait in line to buy a schooner of Pliny will be nostalgic for Sublimely Self Righteous IPA and want to try out this hobby if it remains accessible. But I do believe Gen Z will never embrace this hobby in the same numbers as Millennials, Gen X or even Boomers. I can’t predict what future generations will do.
I suspect what spurs interest in homebrewing is the DYI mentality, not making styles that are not readily available commercially. Gen Z has little DYI in them (not sure about Millennials). Screens and social media have trained Gen Z to expect instant gratification at all times. The attention span needed to make a beer and then to wait 2-4 weeks for it to ferment are simply not in Gen Z’s wheelhouse.
Not to get off topic, but books are another casualty of screens and social media. Gen Z doesn’t really read books anymore. And their comprehension of what they do read is low. (I taught in higher education for many years and saw this firsthand.)
The hobby is also much more expensive now than it was even a few years ago. Climate change will exacerbate this. People in the hobby generally have disposable income, but cost will dissuade some people for sure.
I too don’t think that younger generations will embrace this hobby as we old timers age out of it. I think the decline will continue.
great article on the CNN website about reading making a comeback. Guess that gives some hope for homebrewing.
I think Skyler’s point has some truth to it, that those of us who had to scale back due to kids will dip back into things as our kids get older.
One positive trend I’ve seen (and I’m appreciative of AHA for this) is giving more visibility to smaller scale brewing with more affordable equipment. Early on, a big intimidating factor for me was the (early 2000’s) highly visible stereotype that all-grain brewing required one to be a homeowner with a two car garage that had space for a three-tier brewing system. Then I discovered batch sparging, and the rest is history. I wonder if all-in-one systems are helping or hurting; on the one hand, they are very compact; on the other hand, $500 to $1000 isn’t pocket change, especially for someone testing out a new hobby (and the inevitable “you just need to rewire for 220v” comment, which makes a lot of assumptions about people’s living situations).
As the hobby enters a new phase, I’m also thinking a lot about not just what we might lose, but also what losses might be in the category of “good riddance.” And where new opportunities might be possible!
Something to keep in mind…as your kids get older, you will, too. You’re probably nowhere near as old as I am, but I’m finding there are days I just don’t have the energy to brew, even when I have the desire. And that’s with a killer AIO that makes brewing about as easy as it can be. Without that, I likely wouldn’t be brewing these days.
Yes indeed! My dad brews probably four times a year now, and that’s plenty for him (but he also puts a lot of time into hop cultivation, etc.).
I’m not nearly old yet, but have slowed down in that I brew smaller batches than I used to. 2.5 gallons is a lot more appealing than 5 gallons nowadays…I only expect that trend to continue!
@dmtaylor lol kids not wanting to drink maybe but get into trouble - they are awful around here imho. your timeline tho yes i think its potentially more of a longterm resurgence ie. decades not years.
what i think makes sense is the local pub concept. its awful in fact not having small pubs or true local (to serve the immediate ~1km in either direction) bars where i live. ive said for a while an amazing cultural concept would be regulation or workarounds ie “brew clubs” where there is a small space shared for a community. equipment between homebrew and nano-brewery size where people brew beers the community chooses and puts them on tap, free for “members” who have perhaps a monthly fee or simply pay for the calculated ingredients cost.
im cheap. and if i want a macro garbage beer at some bar near me (near being ~3 to 5km) they start at $7 absolute minimum for a 400ml “pint” from filthy lines, overcarbed. going quickly up to 10, 12 or more for “Premium” choices like heineken or stella. half that goes to tax, a quarter has to pay for the 20 teevees on the wall of the bar and half the remaining quarter is the actual cost the beer should be.
a lot of things in canada have been overregulated to the point of ruin, restaurants, drinking out, hanging out at third places. no wonder people are incapable of socializing or meeting partners.
edit: digressing further - im amazed how generic almost all breweries are, and from my outsiders POV (though i did do one academic paper on this) how focused they are on this “local” concept for success rather than distribution.
they mostly do the full spread of everything that everyone else has ie. hazies/IPAs/lagers/one stout, one saison or belgian, one light/weak/“session” beer, literally more IPAs, one “experimental” fruit beer ie. orange creamsicle and honestly none of them exceptionally, maybe one or two well
why not be the brewery that does one or two close styles well like so many obvious success stories from europe - pilsner urquell, schneider, schlenkerla, hoegaarden, rodenbach etc.
i say these names and you think of ONE product.
Couldn’t disagree with this any more. Gen Z is no more or less interested in DIY than any other generation. They just aren’t interested in the same DIY. And the Gen Z that I know are far smarter and way more advanced than whatever Gen I belong to.
Now this I agree with wholeheartedly. Where’s the DIY in a Grainfather or Anvil or BrewZilla? Wonderful equipment to be sure, but I don’t see a lot of DIY attraction there. Just simplicity. And cost. Throwaway money that younger generations haven’t yet accrued.
I dunno…is using a stove to cook food not DIY?
Not sure what you’re getting at. I’m not equating AIO Brewing with cooking on a stove. I’m equating AIO Brewing with homebrewing before the AIO’s even existed which, in my opinion, was far more DIY. Maybe I’m wrong.
It is really a matter of perspective. During COVID there was a big uptick in homebrewing and other hobbies. In the past few years all that equipment has been popping up for resale. There is still a reasonable market for new equipment though which shows people sticking to it or new people getting involved. I live in Canada where homebrewing has never been illegal and I learned from my Father and Grandfather and have been brewing for almost 40 years on my own. When the “Joy of Homebrewing” came out I noticed a lot more interest in brewing. I did ease off during the work and raising a family years and dove back in 20 years ago. With the advent of online shopping during COVID things got easier. I mentor new brewers who inevitably say “but I saw a youtube video or heard a podcast….” Probably the worst way to learn - there is a reason schools don’t use these tools. Any new growth in the hobby can only come from those in the hobby teaching and helping others hands on. Clubs that offer learn to homebrew days and passionate brewers who spread the love are the best way to get new blood in the hobby.
As to the “why are they focused on local customers and not distribution” piece, a smallish brewer in Northern California explained this to me a while back (probably around 2018-2019): they make $.25 per pint sold from one of their kegs poured at a pub in San Francisco, they make $1/pint poured from one of their cans bought from the store, and they make $5/pint for a pint they sell in their tasting room. So the immense hassle of distributing is basically more about marketing their cans and getting people to come to their pub than it is about selling kegs of beer. And the business from cans has to be really good to justify investing that much into it and not trying to get more people served at their tasting room (which is why so many breweries that are successful open pubs). The hardest part of the business becomes managing a restaurant, though, brewers try to find ways around that like renting the space next to the brewery and expanding the tasting room into a “barrel room” and getting food trucks to come out or adding video games, goldfish crackers and ice cream for kids to run around while parents drink; anything to get customers to buy pints and still avoid having to operate a restaurant.
Great topic and thread. The tough part is that we cannot be fully sure that "homebrewing isn’t as popular as it was a decade ago." Some thoughts:
Bottom line: Homebrewing is a generational pastime that has been around for thousands of years and has staying power.
In its modern form, there is enough belief that the AHA (as your national association) went independent and out on our own from the pro brewers Association. We (as a community) have a VERY committed stable of volunteer leaders and staff invested in stewarding members and growing the hobby. So much so that we even started the A-Ha Foundation to support the growth of homebrewing beyond what the AHA alone can/does/will do for members.
Cheers, and keep brewing and fermenting! Julia (your humble AHA / A-Ha Foundation Executive Director)
I asked ChatGPT, “Why is homebrewing beer is declining?” Although I take its results with a grain of salt, it’s useful. In the reply, it made a couple statements that stood out to me:
“The economics of homebrewing have changed. Homebrewing historically had a fairly compelling economic argument: ‘I can make really good beer for much less than I can buy.’ That’s less compelling today. Someone contemplating homebrewing has to ask whether spending $500–$2,000+ on equipment and many hours per batch is worth the savings.”
Obvious, and already discussed. But something I hadn’t thought about is this:
“The hobby has become more technically sophisticated and more demanding. Homebrewing today requires expertise in water chemistry, oxygen management, temperature control, gas pressure, kegging, closed transfers, yeast health, sensory evaluation, etc. It makes the hobby less approachable to someone who just wants to make beer. Having to know these things is a psychological barrier to entering the hobby. It’s an interesting paradox: technological improvements make it possible to make much better homebrew, while simultaneously making the process more complicated.”
When I started homebrewing in the mid-90s, homebrewing products and ingredients and knowledge weren’t as complicated as they are now. I can see why someone would say, “no thanks, I’ll just buy beer at the store.”
Also this: “Today, you no longer need to be a homebrewer to participate in beer culture.” Very true.
