Demise of Craft Brewing, Rebirth of Homebrewing

General Homebrew Discussion
21

I’ve heard that before. I bet there are other examples where people could say the opposite ie. contract brewers who do only distribution.

i sell at scale as my job, and i LOVE selling 5000 a year of something even at a low margin because generally its just packed on a skid, you ship the skid, you get paid. its virtually the same amount of work as an individual sale of a pint/single product unit, arguably often with less time wasting chit-chat and more repeatable/scheduled because someone wants a good product at a good price not a decision based on one individual’s whims that day. these people are making the child-like mistake of thinking they will make money somehow by smiling nicely as they hand a single person a pint of beer and the person says “ooh its so good!” and do that a few times a day. you need to make that happen 10000 times a month and you do it through distribution.

the entire restaurant/pickle ball fun centre/free snacks for kids until 4pm on sunday! thing is a joke to me. youre saying that is the hardest part. lol, then maybe they shouldnt do it.

listening to michael tonsmeire on interviews about how hes spending all his time serving tacos is depressing and pathetic, this guy and scott janish were making innovations in beer. its located in some weird ugly industrial suburb like so many other “brewpubs”.

these are people who are educated and have traveled - have they not experienced the true joy of very urban cozy small bars in asia or europe where you stop for a pint (that turns into several especially if you are with people) while walking from a point A to B. Minimal floorspace cost, minimal staff cost, no food, ideally high volume so youre making a profit.

you can see this concept is failing - so, good luck to the guy trying this method again along with 50,000 other craft tap rooms or whatever across america.

@Megary thats why i havent gone AIO. Ive been poor before and i never will again because i hang on to every penny. If I decided to brew enough for some reason that AIO saved me enough time throughout the year maybe i’d consider it, or if i get too old i guess. The DIY core of homebrewing was super important for it, homebrewing in a way is really just trying to solve the following: “how do i get ethanol into my body in the most pleasurable way i can?” among other considerations like cost, time, etc

@jherzjherz
Re: homebrew shops closing - perhaps we could end up seeing specialization - i know for several years there are hop specialty suppliers that just do hops. yeast as well? i feel like when a business environment is tough the way to survive is to focus on what is making you money.
-homebrewing is beer, winemakers have crossover probably much moreso say in california but where i love home winemakers skew much much older than homebrewers and imho make plonk to get drunk and have stagnated massively (really - where i live) technologically compared to the average beer homebrewer.
-kombucha, food fermentation is obviously not homebrewing.
-perry and cider dont need to be separated and are homebrewers, lots of crossover and imho more like a thing homebrewers make from time to time.
-sake brewers are very rare from what ive encountered and i was one. if you have a dedicated sake brewing setup that is separate from homebrewing (required due to the aspergillus oryzae etc) you are probably 1 in 20,000 homebrewers.

re: economics - the economics are better than ever where i live. i feel like there should be a movement to petition the govt to get rid of/reduce taxes on alcohol (maybe for small producers). tallboys of macro crap are $3 a can at best. at some venue they will hand you a tallboy and charge you $10 or $12. the increase in my costs based on ingredients increases is like 20 cents per 500ml over the past 5 years.

again - i think there should be a return to density of much smaller and more basic beer places (i also have this theory with coffee shops) AND potentially run as a sort of co-op for members to cheat the tax on beer for their community. literally the local pub but if you want to drink there you become a member of the “Forest Lane community beer club” which you pay a membership to and you pour your own “homebrewed” beer collectively produced by the club. Only catch is people are scheduled to make beer once a month at a minimum. This would make beer finally make economic sense again.

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22

There is a lot of science and math in homebrewing…if you want to spend time on it. Not to contradict our AI overlords, but I absolutely am not an expert in oxygen management, gas pressure, nor do I close transfer. I don’t use any brewing software, but rather have a notebook where I write out brew day and tasting notes.

If that second paragraph is a barrier for entry then I’d say we all collectively (homebrewers, clubs, AHA, LHBS’s, the publications and podcasts) have incorrectly set that expectation.

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23

This is exactly why “RDWHAHB” was so important to me when I started out, and why I think it’s an important philosophy to carry forward. When you are exploring a new hobby, and the first point of contact is “you must do all-grain precisely mashed with exact water chemistry and if there is any oxygen introduced then your beer is hopelessly ruined,” it’s not exactly welcoming. I know that RDWHAHB won’t necessarily win you medals, but I would argue that it’s probably the very best starting point for someone new to the hobby! (and it’s helpful to remind myself RDWHAHB from time to time, when the fermentation doesn’t take off right away, or I accidentally dip my finger in the fermenting beer, or I have to make a malt substitution, or whatever).

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24

With my very simple system I can brew the beers I and my friends and family enjoy. I minimize splashing hot wort but I would not say I worry about it , I cool as quickly as possible using a simple immersion chiller. I still use a Philmill and of course I naturally carbonate. My beers never exceed an OG of 1.055 and the last time I entered a competition was 25 years ago or so.

Not saying you have to brew this way but it is a reminder that you don’t need to obsess or have a lot of $$ invested to make enjoyable beer.

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25

Nice set up (!) and truck. :slight_smile:

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26

:slight_smile:

2003 1500 Ram with the 5.7

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27

I believe perceived costs may be swaying some people away from the hobby. Looking at the equipment other brewers have: AIO systems, conical fermenters, glycol chillers, pumps, Tilt hydrometers, kegs and draft systems, it seems expensive. When I started in 1995, most of this wasn’t available on the homebrew scale. I think experienced brewers are aware that good beer can be made on simpler systems, but a new brewer may not.

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28

I agree 100%. You can brew 5 gallon extract with specialty grain batches with a 4 or 5 gallon kettle (planning on partial boil), a swamp cooler that doubles as a wort chiller by adding water and ice after the boil, a bucket fermenter, and bottles. You can convert this to 2.5 gallon BIAB batches to go all grain. Going that way, the equipment will pay for itself quickly. Then brewing is really a no-cost hobby - even saves some money, although that’s not the point.

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29

I think a lot of things are cyclical and the kids will figure out how to have fun, and that might even include beer. It was probably a decade after the brewpub boom (and later bust) of the early 90s before I really got into good beer. Half of Gen Z can’t go to bars yet.

However, having two young kids makes it very hard for me to brew right now.

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30

i sell at scale as my job, and i LOVE selling 5000 a year of something even at a low margin because generally its just packed on a skid, you ship the skid, you get paid. its virtually the same amount of work as an individual sale of a pint/single product unit, arguably often with less time wasting chit-chat and more repeatable/scheduled because someone wants a good product at a good price not a decision based on one individual’s whims that day. these people are making the child-like mistake of thinking they will make money somehow by smiling nicely as they hand a single person a pint of beer and the person says “ooh its so good!” and do that a few times a day. you need to make that happen 10000 times a month and you do it through distribution.

the entire restaurant/pickle ball fun centre/free snacks for kids until 4pm on sunday! thing is a joke to me. youre saying that is the hardest part. lol, then maybe they shouldnt do it.

listening to michael tonsmeire on interviews about how hes spending all his time serving tacos is depressing and pathetic, this guy and scott janish were making innovations in beer. its located in some weird ugly industrial suburb like so many other “brewpubs”.

these are people who are educated and have traveled - have they not experienced the true joy of very urban cozy small bars in asia or europe where you stop for a pint (that turns into several especially if you are with people) while walking from a point A to B. Minimal floorspace cost, minimal staff cost, no food, ideally high volume so youre making a profit.

you can see this concept is failing - so, good luck to the guy trying this method again along with 50,000 other craft tap rooms or whatever across america.

Expanding and trying to compete at scale was the thing that got so many mid-size regional breweries in trouble. How do you fight for shelf space against the big guys that practically own distribution? How do you build a loyal customer base nationally when people haven’t heard of you, and novelty is what sells? How do you keep your product interesting when you’re forced to simplify your branding into a __ Ranger or __ Little Thing line and sell at low margins in grocery store 12 packs? Seems like most breweries couldn’t do it and were acquired or failed. Sierra Nevada was one of the exceptions, thankfully. And even they make a seltzer.

As for bars, every bar owner I’ve talked to says you need food, period, or people leave too quickly. Yes, you’re in the restaurant business, it sucks but you have to deal with it. Some people get food trucks, a few tap rooms have delivery options but that’s not ideal.

At the other end of the spectrum, the places I see that succeed now are local and have a community following based on events, fun perks, returning regulars, and proximity to agriculture or to sports. Kid friendly is also a draw, although that makes more sense in areas with lots of outdoor space and not a warehouse. I hear old single men complain but the reality is that you can’t build a business catering to people in their 20s when they don’t like beer. It sucks that Mike Tonsmeire thinks slinging tacos is soul destroying, but I’m not sure what he expected. I’ve been to his place and it’s nice, relatively small and definitely in the suburbs. Would he have more fun dealing with the gameday crowds by the stadiums downtown? The hospitality business isn’t for everyone.

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31

This, yes. one little mission I have IRL is explaining to people it does not have to be expensive and that cost of your rig has almost nothing to do with the potential end beer’s quality.

@CS487210 Yes, I stopped brewing for a period then started again but it was drastically reduced I think just like one or two times a year, then slowly started doing stuff like extract hacks again for minimal time and effort but still beer.

also - yes that is a reality - but i do envision potential - again i think it would be about doing one thing very well and looking good while doing it. macro beer is still SO BAD, they have not changed their core product at all imho.
yes - my perception is probably skewed because my idea of a good time or good product is drastically different than most people’s. so you may be right.

i think a bigger concern when i do think of examples of small breweries that succeeded on a regional or even national scale is that they almost universally get bought out. goose island, millstreet + steamwhistle in canada, new belgium etc.

damn i hate coors/blue/budweiser etc its so disgusting to me. my neighbours universally drink coors and i get to hear their explanations of how much better coors is than blue/bud/miller etc. lol

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32

I tend to be a bit more optimistic in that I feel the pendulum will swing back with craft beer and homebrewing like it does with other things. It may not swing back all the way like it was at the peak in the early 2000’s but it will swing back to some degree. Meanwhile, as Martin said, I will continue making the styles that I won’t be able to get commercially (e.g. Baltic Porter) even though I am getting older and don’t drink as much beer as I used to. I still try to keep about 6 on tap here and they are well received by friends and family.

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33

I have that same optimism. There was a bit of irrational exuberance both in the craft beer and brewing world over the past 10 years, and a correction was overdue. If nothing else, we’re all not so great about forecasting the future. The forum recently suggested a post from 2016 about the decline of homebrewing and this one from 2014 about the decline of beer sales, with comments from many of the same people on this thread sharing pretty much the same sentiments as in this 2026 thread. It’s the fault of young people! Old people! Too much time on the internet!

History doesn’t repeat itself, but it sure does rhyme.

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34

What goes around comes around and hobbies have ups and down. #DeepThoughts. My point is no matter the rise or drop I feel homebrewing is a generational hobby that stands the test of time.

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35

Around where I live there are phases where the county tax man thinks they’ve caught lightening in a bottle.

Town centers. Except no one really wants to walk.

Outlet malls. OK, if they are the only one, but then just about every town has at least one. Nothing special.

Breweries/cideries/wineries. Same fate as outlet malls.

Legalized drugs. Except no one seemed to consider people driving under the influence or other social problems. Anyone using Union Station in Washington, DC will understand.

Now, BIG thing around here GAMBLING! Yes, yes, that will make a LOT of money for the county. Same fate as outlet malls.

Also, concerning breweries, difficult justifying $9 to $10 for 12 ounces, sometimes a pint, of something simple such as a Pils, Cream Ale or a Blonde Ale.

County kinda kills the golden goose as they impose a prepared anything tax. This means pay regular state tax, local tax and then the prepared anything tax.

I know I’d just rather spend the time and brew my own.

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36

This is spot on. The reason why you can (my reference point) enjoy a vibrant eating, drinking and just living urban experience in virtually all of asia is because they know people have to make a livelihood and dont strangle them with ridiculous taxes and regulations. There are tradeoffs obviously, but we are at a stage in north america where largely only franchises can survive supplied by SYSCO, and they have absurd prices to pay for alcohol licensing/taxes, absurd wages for basic work (min. wage here now is $17.95/hour. LOL), property tax, absurd rents.

wierdly enough legal marijuana here is as cheap as about $3 a gram of hyper-potent weed. But why would the government want stoned, apathetic “its all good… whatever” citizens… ?

broken system, im having the least fun ive ever had these days in north america tbh

37

You just took me back to the early 2000’s!. I joined a brew club and thats how most people brewed. Great beers then, even without endless tech gadgets and super accurate water treatment etc. I like shiny new gadgets from a tech point of view, and am all for new stuff, but hate having them myself.

My smart watch for swimming is a casio F91W though, lol

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38

You don’t need to spend lots of funds to get into homebrewing. There are many homebrewers who are”aging out” and want to sell their equipment at a fraction of the cost it was to purchase them. Check with your local clubs and see if anyone is selling. Yard and garage sales can yield a wealth of carboys, cookers, and other items. Home wine enthusiasts are aging and dying out and want to deaccess equipment.

There have been many extract brews made on the kitchen stove that have won NHC medals. With the accessibility of hop oils more common, the mess created in the past by organic materials are greatly reduced.

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39

I totally agree, but I am not the one who needs to be convinced of this.

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40

For me, home brewing is a form of relaxation that extends beyond consumption of the finished product. The ritual of the process is relaxing, from deciding what to brew, writing (and rewriting) the recipe, to gathering ingredients and putting it all together on brew day. Seeing and tasting the end result and judging how well it fit expectations is the final part of the process, writing tasting notes into my recipe with ideas for improvement helps for the next batch of that style. I only brew a handful of styles anymore, styles enjoy and share with friends, so it is a process of refinement. I enjoy a good craft beer when I am out, but mostly drink my own at home.

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